Successful Rob Ford Mayoral campaign: simple, effective, and grassroots

Democracy works by allowing anyone to campaign for a political position, and the person who gets the most votes, gets the position. Apart from a couple of years living in China, this is all I have known. Here in Toronto we have a new mayor who campaigned on the platform of cost and waste reduction. Roughly a third of all councilors were swept out, replaced by fresh faces and ideas. We have “polls” that predict the outcome of the election before election day. These polls are akin to taking the pulse of a patient, an indicator of events to come. Using scientific and statistical analysis one would think that these polls would be quite accurate, but in the case of Toronto’s mayorality race, the polls were very wrong, by a large margin. It turns out that the offline community, those that do not have internet access or those that spend very little time online, threw the polls off, so much so as to question the benefits of polling all together.

Prior to yesterday’s municipal election most polls showed the two front runners with equal strength, too close to definitively predict a winner. This was universal amongst many different polls. The election results differed substantially. Rob Ford won with 47% over George Smitherman’s 36%, an enormous gaping difference of 11% or a third of the votes of the runner up. How is this possible?

EKOS pollster Frank Graves seems to have gotten it right:

Mr. Graves nailed the Toronto race. His last poll – released Sunday, the day before the vote – showed Mr. Ford with 48 per cent support compared to 33 per cent for former Liberal deputy premier George Smitherman.

Other polling had shown the race was too close to call but Mr. Graves was predicting a big win for Mr. Ford. And he was right – the latest tally in the morning newspapers showed Mr. Ford capturing 47 per cent of the vote compared to 36 per cent for Mr. Smitherman.

Mr. Graves notes that Mr. Ford’s surge came late and was missed by some polls. Pollsters sampling through on-line surveys did not pick up on some of Mr. Ford’s strongest supporters: the older, lower and moderate socio-economic voters.

“Most of these are not online,” Mr. Graves explained. “This particular result harshly exposes the problem of ignoring those who aren’t online.”

I find it amusing, as a techologically savvy IT person, when there is such a reliance on technology that they are blinded by it. In this case online polls are the easy way to collect data, but in the end pollsters did not account for those not online. This skewed their results so much as to render their predictions highly inaccurate. We must never lose sight of the goal and always be wary of how technology can take on a life of their own.

All Toronto residents are entitled to vote, be they nerds who live online or those that do not have a computer. I liked Rob Ford’s campaign as it was simple and easy to understand for all: “Stop the Gravy Train”, “Respect the taxpayer”. While easy to understand, the elite in Toronto, represented by the Toronto Star and Glove and Mail, decried the campaign as simplistic and lacking in depth. This may be so, but is was certainly effective. Ford’s slogans triggered an idea of his approach to government, far deeper and more important than nailing down exactly what one would do given a specific city issue. Circumstances can change rapidly in a city, so the strategy of how to approach issues is quite important.

Still, a simple and effective message, and a consistent delivery of the same message really made the Ford campaign easy to understand and support.

Maybe this is a good lesson in effective communication for all of us?

To block Facebook’s new Instant Personalization Setting, get onto Facebook, go to Privacy Settings, Applications and Settings, Instant Personalization Pilot Program. This will be set to “allow” by default. Uncheck this. You are now done.

It is odd that this Facebbook program is a “pilot”, because once your information is transferred to the other site, there is no “undoing” or returning this information. I give Facebook a big thumbs down for such an idiotic decision to open up a potentially large security breach.

Human rights violations in China are numerous and well documented, so there is no point in defending the indefensible. Locking up citizens because they blog their views is a human rights violation, but not because they use the internet: Their rights are violated because they are not permitted freedom of speech. The fact that they use the internet is incidental, as they could have wrote a dazibao (large character poster), or used some other media.

For the U.S. to link the restriction of Internet access to a human rights violation is puzzling to me. I have heard sounds bites of Hillary Clinton, US Secretary of State, say much the same. Particularly odd is this International Herald Tribune op ed commentary in the New York Times:

To pull the plug on the Internet for 20 million of its citizens is not simply bad policy, it’s a violation of human rights. And although for now China is unlikely to change its heavy-handed approach to Internet censorship, it is appropriate to remind the Chinese government that persistence in these policies will result in the same phenomenon happening in Xinjiang — exodus.

While I largely agree with the article, the insinuation of a human rights violation for Xinjiang’s 20M citizens is difficult for me to swallow. There will be no exodus for the residents of Xinjiang as most have no financial means to move, and if they did they would not be permitted by the Chinese government. Nothing has and nothing will happen in the future solely because of the lack of internet. There are many countries and areas of the world that still do not have widespread internet access. Are their human rights being violated?

There are few things in life you need to live. Food, water, shelter, clothing. There are other things in life that allow dignity as a human being. Then there are the “nice to have”. The internet is clearly in the last category.

Mike Holmes exudes credibility because of his knowledge and actions, not because of a slick web site.

Home renovations shows are useful to me because they educate the public in the care and feeding of your home. Like any system, homes need maintenance and upkeep. Knowing what to do can prevent major damage and expense in the long run. On occasion, these seemingly mundane shows highlight issues that stick to me. Recently Mike Holmes, from “Homes on Holmes” and “Holmes Inspection” lamented that one of his customers found a contractor online, thought the guy was legit and handed him $25,000CAD for a basement renovation. This legit contractor subcontracted out and created a structural and aesthetic disaster of dangerous quality. Mike’s conclusion: You can’t find a legit contractor from a web site. I agree with him.

Finding a credible contractor here in Toronto, Ontario, Canada is difficult. If a contractor does shoddy work and damages your house, as long as the contractor has completed some work, any work, no matter how badly, the only legal recourse is to go after them with a civil lawsuit. There is no possibility of filing fraud or criminal charges against the contractor. So many people have been cheated by contractors that do little to no work, and walk away with consumers’ cash, declare bankruptcy and start again. This is the basis of Mike Holmes’ TV series. He “Makes it Right”.

I want to emphasize that a slick web site does not mean that the people behind it are credible. Maybe because I work in technology and spend a lot of time on the internet, I thought that everyone knew this. Obviously not. Almost anyone, with a proper investment, can make a slick web site. You can lie and put up all kinds of photos of great renovations that are not yours. You can state that you have affiliations with all sorts of credible organization, all fake. In fact the Internet makes such cheating easy, as all you really need is to use Google. Look up some random people and state in your website that you are their friend. It’s highly unlikely that anyone will challenge your site and so what if they do? Consider the Internet the modern version of the Wild West.

I admit that I use the Internet on a daily basis, but rarely purchase goods online. There are many reasons, but lack of credibility is high on the list. Just because they have a lovely photo of a jacket does not mean they won’t take your money and ship you something else. I am cautious with any company I don’t know. If I’m interested, I try to find a credible reference, personal or from the internet.

Personal references are best, though not foolproof. They are the traditional way of networking. You ask friends and family and they recommend someone. Then you check them out. Maybe the referee knows not much about the subject and is not capable of giving you a credible reference, so you need to do your homework. Credibility comes from deeds and actions, not what they state. Those with the “gift of the gab” can then be weeded out in favour of those that can do quality work but are not as adept at tooting their own horn.

Internet references are also possible. One might think that if a slick web site cannot denote credibility, how can one get an Internet reference? Positive, repeated, numerous and varied customer reviews point to internet credibility. Though one can use a Google search, I prefer going to an internet forum. There are active Internet forums for just about any subject. You find an internet forum using Google, though ensure it has a large base of people and is active. The longer you read and participate in a forum, the better you will know and trust certain people that post. Once you make friends and establish your own credibility, others will also trust your judgement. This is the essence of a community, Internet or otherwise. Before you try an unknown retailer, bricks and mortar or online, you can ask the community for their experience. As well, if you have had an experience, good or bad, that others can benefit, you should also post it.

For me using the Internet is pretty second nature, but there are so many people out there that are new to the medium. Unscrupulous people will utilize any means to cheat people and the Internet is just one new tool. I continue to go back to tried and true human relationships to establish credibility, and hope others do as well. Use the Internet as yet another way of extending your community to far beyond your geographic community, and your life will be richer.

Seattle PI Globe, AP Photo/ Elaine Thompson

It is with deep regret that today, March 17 2009, the Seattle Post-Intellingencer has written its own obituary and ceased production of its paper version. In business from 1863-2009, the 146-year old Seattle newspaper served more than 117,600 weekday readers. While the online version will continue, the PI has layed off 90% of its reporters, whittling its staff down to 20 reporters, a shadow if its former self. The PI will certainly be missed.

___Just to disclose that I have no affiliation to the Seattle PI. In fact, I do not recall reading any of their articles, nor referencing the newspaper in online posts or research. Still, one must regret the passing of such an old newspaper that has stood the test of time. Until today.

___My regret is also brought on by my a worry that many other newspapers are also on the brink of collapse, particularly here in Canada. I note that while Canada’s Toronto Star and Globe and Mail circulation numbers are higher than the Seattle PI, looking at circulation by population, they are very much the same. With a population of 528,000 people, the Seattle PI was delivered to 33.6% of Seattle residents. With a population of 2.6m, the Toronto Star weekend edition is delivered to 24% of Torontonians. While you can argue the statistics, suffice it to say that circulation numbers between the newspapers are comparable.

The most widely read paper in the country is the Toronto Star, which, as of the six-month period ending on March 31, 2007, averaged 634,886 copies sold on Saturday, 436,694 Monday to Friday, and 442,265 on Sunday. The second most widely read paper is Toronto-based national newspaper The Globe and Mail, which averaged 410,285 copies on Saturdays, and 322,807 Monday to Friday.

___Perhaps they were simply an organization that lost touch with their readership and deserved to die, dinosaurs in an era of the electronic word. Maybe Seattleites simply do not read news as much as they used to, though I do doubt that. It seems the transition to electronic format somehow went awry for the Seattle PI.

___I can only comment about my own reading habits. I acknowledge that my reading habits are different between online and print newspapers. I use and enjoy both, but they serve me in different ways. Internet news is quick, succinct, efficient, global and targeted to knowledge acquisition. Print newspapers are leisurely, curious, playful, local and mind expanding. One cannot supplant the other.

___I read the vast majority of my news on the internet, though I rarely hit the front page of any newspaper site. I also read widely and internationally. Using the internet I am no longer restricted to regional news. Worthy news is international. When reading with such breadth one can easily get a low signal to noise ratio, or more crudely put, you need to wade through too much crap out there in order to find the news jewels worthy of your time.

___In reading internationally I depend on internet tools to help me find my daily fix of news. I take my top 50 world-wide newspaper sites, filter by keyword, aggregate, sort by reverse date, categorize and serve up my news du jour. With my reading list I can scan the article title and summary. Most articles I leave unread. My browser automatically removes advertising, though global advertising is pretty much useless to me anyway.

___In reading print newspapers I am much more leisurely. Glancing at each page I let my mind wander. Whatever tickles my fancy I read. I entertain divergent opinions and scan topics I would never think about filtering online. You could say that I’m a news window shopper.

___On top of reading from 50 global newspapers I also read over 100 global blogs. Blogs can be entertaining but their signal to noise ratio is much lower than that of global newspapers. While blogs can be entertaining, one quickly realizes that quality writing is a rare skill. The number of blogs I read on a regular basis amounts to a grand total of 5. You really need some pretty sharp internet tools to whittle down the noise out there in the blogosphere, for their sheer weight can literally bury you. To stay on top and search for quality blogs is a constant battle. The ones you find are true gems.

___With the demise of the Seattle PI I worry about the overall content quality of news on the internet. Investigative reporting is so valuable to quality news. Though many blogs try to follow suit, the vast majority simply do not have the talent, resources, connections nor infrastructure to do a good job; not even a good enough job. Good bloggers cite newspapers to bolster their arguments, leaning on them as a reliable news source as well as the inspiration for their blog posting. Real investigative reporting needs real professionals, journalists, like the journalists that just got laid off at the Seattle PI.

___Without journalists internet news would be of much lower quality than it is today. There must evolve a way to reward journalists for their work while evolving news dissemination in electronic format. How this will work remains to be discovered.

Farmer on a laptop. This photo looks staged

___People’s Daily reports:

The government is rolling out a 13-percent subsidy for farmers who buy home appliances from Feb. 1 in a nationwide expansion of a pilot policy in 12 provinces last year. It will also expand the range of eligible products from basic home appliances like TVs and refrigerators to air conditioners, motorcycles and computers.

___ Recently released data from yesterday’s National People’s Congress (NPC), National Committee of the CPPCC Annual Sessions 2009, Xinhua News reports:

Urban per capita annual disposable income reached 15,781 yuan, an increase of 8.4 percent in real terms, and rural per capita net income reached 4,761 yuan, up by 8 percent in real terms.

___PC World has also written that Lenovo has their eyes on the money of Chinese farmers:

Lenovo, China’s largest PC maker, also embraced the program. The company will extend its sales network to 320,000 villages over the next three years, it said Wednesday. It offers 15 computer models eligible for the subsidy program, ranging in price from 2,500 renminbi (US$365) to 3,500 renminbi, it said.

I really like that Lenovo laptop with the Intel Pentium Dual-Core Processor

___It is encouraging that the government is paying attention to China’s large rural population. After spending significant time in 2 rural villages this summer I can attest that Chinese farmers are very wary of all government actions, and they should be. Farmers are also, by necessity, very frugal with their hard earned money. Historically they have not experienced the huge growth and increases in income that has happened in cities. One could arguably say that China’s farmers have been used to subsidize huge urban growth by providing inexpensive food and coal, with not a lot in return.

___When I asked some farmers about getting computer access (So I could keep in touch with them and send them photos), they simply laughed. A computer, they told me would cost about 1,500RMB, or about 30% of their net income. Lenovo’s cheapest computer offering of 2,500RMB would account for just over 50% of an average farmer’s net income. Putting this into a North American perspective, if your salary is, say, $50,000, a knockoff computer would cost you $15,000, and a Lenovo would cost you $26,000. Further more, internet access to many Chinese villages is charged by the minute, making connection costs very expensive. Note that there is no government subsidy for connection fees.

___The adoption of computer technology must be done in stages. People need to see personal benefit before they are willing to part with their cash. It will take a lot of education to convince a farmer to part with over 30% of his income for an electronic box to connect to the world. It is only recently that China’s cellular phones have become widespread amongst farmers, allowing them to keep in contact with their family’s migrant workers. The infrastructure to support internet access in the village has certainly not been built. When some families find it hard to justify the cost of a landline telephone, and do not plug in their refrigerator in order to save electricity, one can appreciate the audacity of subsidizing computer technology in China’s rural villages.

___Many farmers might take the opportunity to purchase a new motorcycle. They can use a motorcycle to visit neighbouring villages and family members, and to go to the monthly fairs. As for connecting farmers to the internet, it isn’t going to happen soon.

I didn’t expect to get such a nice girl as Summer to visit me during my small financial transaction. It just goes to show you that no matter what you’re doing, a guy can always appreciate a bit of encouragement.

I continue to learn everyday. The internet makes this continual search for knowledge convenient. All from the comfort of my kitchen. It’s a far cry from just a few years ago. While I’m a strong supporter of the internet, note that there are dangers that lurk, and there’s a great portion of life outside of the internet and computers. Are we destined to be stuck indoors in front of our collective computer monitors? I say not. Use the internet for research, but live life outside.