Within China, Dissenting Views: Xiang Songzuo talk 2018 Dec 16

Xiang Songzuo 向松祚, professor, Renmin University, School of Finance, former chief economist of China Agricultural Bank

2018 Dec 16 speech to CEO class at Renmin Business School
-recordings, transcripts banned within China
Thanks for the translation

Aside: 2018 Jul 24 Tsinghua law professor Xu Zhangrun’s (许章润) broadside “Imminent Fears, Immediate Hopes”,

Summary: the Chinese economy is going to be in for long-term and very difficult times.

-Within year, private business investment dropped
-politically XJP supports SOE and not private business

-China’s economy is slowing down, badly
-GDP growth 1.67%, or even negative
-failed issues/miscalculations
1. China-US trade war: China has it wrong, not easily won
2. Cause of economic downturn: large drop in private business investment
3. Pressure on Chinese economy: anti private business messages

-problems are China-internal and not well addressed
-external challenges
1. US-China trade war: no good solution
2. No longer trade or economics but value systems
3. China’s period of strategic opportunity for economic growth: passed

-long-term economic downturn
-China’s economy now 78.5% consumption and services
-as investment significantly slows, consumption cannot support faster economic growth

-6 stables: employment, finance, foreign trade, foreign investment, investment, expectations
-add 3: stable reserves, exchange rate, housing prices
-how to stabilize investment, exports, real estate employment?
-credit receded: Central bank policy bad?
-bonds, stock market cut in half, many companies defaulted
-corporate debt huge, many companies bankrupt, including SOEs
-local debt: huge, not one local gov’t intends to repay debts

-stock market crash: huge
-listed companies don’t make money: of 3,000 listed companies, 66% of profits are banking and real estate, cannot become a bull market
-china’s economy focus on expansion and growth, moved to speculation
-black swans: unexpected events, risks
-grey rhinos: predictable risks, biggest is real estate

-40% of businesses invest into speculation of stock market, not invest in primary business: buy stocks of financial companies buy financial products, real estate
-China’s economy built on speculation, is over-leveraged
-Chinese economy problem is not speed of quality, but quality
-can any radical credit policy or monetary easing solve these problems? Can they start corporate innovation?
-too many credit and monetary tools led to speculation

-solution: tax reform, reform political structure, reform state governance

2018 Dec 30 Empty Homes and Protests: China’s Property Market Strains the World
“The prospects of the property market are grim,” said Xiang Songzuo, a senior economist at Renmin University, said during a lecture at Renmin Business School this month.

“The property market is the biggest gray rhino,” he said, referring to a term the government has used to describe visibly big problems in the Chinese economy that are disregarded until they start gaining momentum.

2019 Jan 13 How will China’s economic downturn impact the wider sporting world?

Professor Xiang Songzuo, from the Renmin University of China in Beijing noted in a speech, which went viral last month, that he read two internal reports, one saying China’s real growth was only 1.67 per cent and the other showing China was actually in economic recession. Xiang has not been heard from since.

2019 Mar 26 A Chinese Law Professor Criticized Xi. Now He’s Been Suspended.: This is Law Professor Xu Zhangrun, Qinghua University, Beijing. He spoke out against the Emperor 2018 July 24. Now he has lost teaching and research privileges, and a pay cut, at Qinghua, and will probably go to jail.

In a series of mobile phone messages, Professor Xu said that several Tsinghua University officials ordered him on Monday to stop all teaching and research and told him his pay would be cut drastically. He said a university “work team” would investigate him, focusing on the essays he had written since July.

He said he was questioned for one and a half hours by the officials.

“I don’t know what they’ll do next,” he said. “I’ve been mentally preparing for this for a long time. At the worst, I could end up in prison.”

2019 April 28 ‘We must carry on’: Chinese government critic and liberal icon Xu Zhangrun vows to keep saying ‘what needs to be said’

Xu Zhangrun, Qinghua constitutional law professor, censured for stating his views, wants to carry on speaking our

Xu Zhangrun, Qinghua constitutional law professor, censured for stating his views, wants to carry on speaking our

2020 Feb 10 Viral Alarm: When Fury Overcomes Fear, by Xu Zhangrun, who is said to be in isolation at his home in Beijing.

2020 Jul 06 Outspoken Chinese law professor Xu Zhangrun taken away by police, friends say

2021 Feb 08 This Chinese Businesswoman Was a Model of Success. Then She Angered the Party.: Geng Xiaonan is a book publisher of cooking, health and lifestyle. She supported Xu Zhangrun, and is now charged.

20211 Feb 11 Chinese publisher who spoke up for dissident academic is jailed for three years: Geng Xiaonan, voiced support for Qinghua professor Xu Zhangrun, gets 3 years in prison, husband gets 2.5 years suspended sentence.

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