TTC: Revised Metrolinx Plan

After the $4B cut, here's what Metrolinx proposes for the TTC: Sheppard East is Ok, a 5 year delay for the rest

Promises are made by the Ontario Provincial government and are quickly broken. This seems to be the way of the Ontario government. Much of this is beyond the control of the average tax payer, until an election looms. Such is life with the TTC’s Transit City Plan. Recently the previously promised funding for Transit City had been cut by $4B by the Ontario provincial government (cut or deferred, the money is unavailable) , from an original $8.2B. That’s a 49% drop. Yesterday Metrolinx released what they propose to do with the scaled down $4.2B budget. The skinny: The Sheppard East LRT is largely intact, all other lines (Scarborough RT, Finch, Eglington) will be delayed 5 years. It’s best to assume that the other 3 lines will not get built, as within 5 years a project can easily lose funding for whatever reason.

Public transit is a bear to get going in Toronto, Canada. People would rather drive their cars, clog the roads and pollute the environment rather than take public transit. I know many people who think it is beneath them to consider public transit. Yet, unlike the rest of the world, public transit gets more cars off the road, reduces traffic jams and therefore lowers pollution levels. If you drive a car, having an efficient public transit will get more people off the road so you can get to your destination faster. Still, it’s a hard sell here in Toronto.

Metrolinx has proposed to use light rail transit technology, rather than build subways. The LRTs are above ground and run in their own lane. At 20% of the cost of a subway they are much cheaper to build. It would be nice to have a subway, but I’d rather have something rather than nothing built. Metrolinx is having such a difficult time funding the LRT plan that to consider a subway plan is sheer folly.

No matter. Metrolinx proposed a budget of $8.2B for 4 LRT lines. In a Toronto Star article today it seems the detailed budget has been revised up $2B to $10.2B, an increase of 25%. The original $8.2B budget was cut by $4B, leaving $4.2B, which means that now the funding shortfall is $6B, a 59% difference. In other words, only 41% of the Metrolinx project actually has funding.

As with many other large construction projects, cost overruns are common. There are always unexpected charges. I cannot recall a single large public construction project that has not seriously run way over budget. The St. Clair streetcar line (budgeted $48M, actual cost $106M, 221% over budget), The Bloor/Yonge Street Revitalization (budgeted $25M, so far $29M spent and one year late, 116% over budget so far) both had huge cost overruns, major inconveniences to citizens and long construction delays. This track record does not bode well for future projects, and we should all acknowledge and expect that these new LRT lines will be fraught with difficulty, delays and increased costs. If the past is a good indicator of future performance, cost and time estimates for public construction in Toronto are highly inaccurate. That or these original projects were vastly under estimated.

The skinny on the revised Metrolinx plan is that the Sheppard East LRT will go through as planned, largely intact, delayed 6 months but expected to open in 2014. We should expect, from past projects’ history, at least a 30% cost overrun and significant time delays. Conservative estimates will lead to more accurate estimates. Because this project will finish before any other LRT lines will start, we should expect that the Sheppard East LRT to take a significant amount of funding from the other three projects.

The existing Scarborough RT is falling apart and will not be supported by the manufacturer after 2011. It would be logical to convert the existing but outdated RT technology to the one used on the Sheppard East LRT. Once construction is started this conversion is expected to take 2 years. Within this time frame the Scarborough RT riders will use existing bus lines. Keeping this line running will become more problematic and expensive as their retirement is delayed. Used cars can be purchased from Vancouver’s Skytrain, and broken down for spare parts. This is very labour intensive and therefore expensive. Still, if you don’t have the funding you need to do whatever it takes to keep the trains running.

Realistically the possibility of completing the Scarborough RT, Finch and Eglington lines are very remote. The projects are delayed by 5 years, a long time considering their funding can be cut at any time. The government might not even be in power in five years and therefore cannot guarantee any such funding. Increased provincial funding should not be expected. It is reasonable and expected that the Sheppard East LRT will run over budget and require increased funding, which will eat into what is left of the $4.2B budget. There will be little funding left for any other LRT line in Toronto. It is better to have realistic expectations of project costs now than to be surprised in 4 years time. Anything else is self delusional.

Update May 17 2010: Metrolinx had a meeting today confirming their plan. Work will go ahead as planned with the Scarborough LRT. LRT cars will be ordered. Tunnel boring equipment will be ordered but work will not start on the Eglington line until 2012. One should note a degree of frustration from Steve Munro, a staunch advocate for public transit in Toronto, providing clarity on the situation:

Cold feet. Reconsideration. Indecision. That’s Toronto’s history of support for transit. We wait decades, and still transit has no dedicated funding for construction and operation. Every delay pushes the entrenchment of transit as a vital, permanently funded public service off to the future and the whims of whatever party might control Queen’s Park or City Hall.

Where is the leadership to build a real Transit City?

Related: TTC Sheppard East Construction Phases

Update: Feb 20 2013: Resurrecting the Scarborough Subway, Steve Munro has hinted that the new leadership in the Liberal Party of Ontario will wise up to the 5 year delay for the Scarborough LRT and reset the original delivery date of 2015. Scarborough can only hope for the best from these politicians. As for the persistent idea of a subway for the Scarborough line, Steve writes:

The idea of shutting down rapid transit in Scarborough for a five-year conversion paints the LRT option very negatively. Add to this the parlous condition of the SRT itself, kept in operation at Queen’s Park’s insistence until after the 2015 Pan Am Games. A subway looks far more appealing because the alternative is presented in the worst possible light.